Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.123672 0.138936 0.155407 0.174511 0.196074 0.219674 0.247484
2025-12-07 0.092727 0.111369 0.132908 0.159676 0.192105 0.230194 0.278434
2025-12-14 0.073055 0.093183 0.117924 0.150659 0.192965 0.245981 0.317750
2025-12-21 0.058817 0.079324 0.106020 0.143468 0.194892 0.263392 0.362163
2025-12-28 0.050153 0.071282 0.100318 0.143371 0.206007 0.294455 0.429973
2026-01-04 0.042124 0.062862 0.092834 0.139644 0.211542 0.318823 0.492943
2026-01-11 0.036336 0.056776 0.087761 0.138595 0.220818 0.350148 0.572011
2026-01-18 0.032028 0.052269 0.084367 0.139557 0.233345 0.388511 0.669291
2026-01-25 0.027038 0.045919 0.077129 0.133161 0.232834 0.405662 0.734368
2026-02-01 0.022781 0.040157 0.070013 0.125837 0.229507 0.417420 0.792119
2026-02-08 0.019722 0.036021 0.065084 0.121583 0.230944 0.437848 0.869759
2026-02-15 0.017104 0.032301 0.060365 0.116968 0.230924 0.455497 0.945285
2026-02-22 0.015563 0.030435 0.058922 0.118647 0.243970 0.501816 1.090917
2026-03-01 0.013537 0.027340 0.054687 0.114115 0.243708 0.521263 1.183582
2026-03-08 0.012027 0.025065 0.051761 0.111844 0.247903 0.551050 1.306176
2026-03-15 0.010731 0.023046 0.049072 0.109657 0.251950 0.581351 1.436855
2026-03-22 0.009976 0.022076 0.048467 0.112017 0.266833 0.639298 1.648319
2026-03-29 0.009051 0.020596 0.046530 0.110990 0.273514 0.678970 1.822055
2026-04-05 0.008346 0.019519 0.045354 0.111600 0.284385 0.731185 2.041676
2026-04-12 0.007796 0.018729 0.044735 0.113492 0.298920 0.795714 2.311152
2026-04-19 0.006948 0.017096 0.041860 0.109164 0.296230 0.813744 2.449632
2026-04-26 0.006146 0.015471 0.038780 0.103813 0.289827 0.820416 2.555770
2026-05-03 0.005551 0.014293 0.036677 0.100783 0.289478 0.844476 2.722923